It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in slot machine mechanics and casino strategy development.