Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
